Primary Risk Outcome
Strait of Hormuz Disruption
Probability of partial or full closure blocking ~21% of global oil transit
—.—%
Posterior Probability
Causal Network P(A|B) = P(B|A)·P(A) / P(B)
Evidence Inputs Set observations
Sensitivity Analysis Impact on Strait Closure risk
Mathematical Model Noisy-OR Bayesian Network — Transparent Priors
// Noisy-OR Conditional Probability Table (CPT)
P(node=false | parents) = (1 − λ₀) × ∏i∈active_parents (1 − λᵢ)
P(node=true | parents) = 1 − P(node=false | parents)

// Where λ₀ = background leak (spontaneous activation)
// And λᵢ = causal strength of parent i

Each node has a background probability λ₀ — the chance it activates with no active parents — modeling unknown/unobserved causes. Each directed edge carries a causal strength λᵢ: the independent probability that an active parent triggers the child node.

Inference is exact: the engine enumerates all 27 = 128 joint states, computes their probabilities using the noisy-OR CPTs, and marginalizes. When you set evidence, the posterior is computed via likelihood weighting — consistent with Bayes' theorem.

Node Background λ₀ Posterior P(true) Parent Edges